Olympic vs. Ketsu-Go (part 6)

He was profoundly troubled, continued the Emperor. What would happen if Japan plunged into decisive battle under such circumstances? The entire race would be obliterated, and this would be a betrayal of the trust of ancestors and the duty toward posterity, lest Japan never again rise. Continuation of the war, then, could only serve to cripple Japan, extinguish civilization, and bring misfortune to mankind.

The Japanese Emperor's decision to end the war, under enormous external and internal pressure, obviated the American landings and the hemorrhage that was bound to occur soon on the beaches of Miyazaki, Satsuma, and Ariake. Not only would five US ground divisions, etc., be saved from the destruction at sea which the Japanese resolutely promised them, but untold thousands of Japanese would not die either-such as squadrons of kamikaze pilots and sailors with one way tickets to the shrine of heroes at Yasukuni; or the women and children clutching pitiful staves and bamboo spears.

The Japanese themselves have called the ending of the war a form of merciful euthanasia, and thank their gods that the nightmare Operations OLYMPIC and CORONET never had to be invoked. But the US Strategic Bombing Survey, in its famous report, reached the significant conclusion that Japan's capitulation in 1945 was strict matter of time-and pressure: "Based on a detailed investigation of all the facts and supported by the testimony of the surviving Japanese leaders involved," said USSBS, "it is the Survey's opinion that certainly prior to 31 December 1945, and all probability prior to 1 November 1945, Japan would have surrendered even if the atomic bomb had not been dropped, even if Russia had not entered the war, and even if no invasion had been planned or contemplated."

OLYMPIC, despite its massive size, was merely a preliminary to CORONET, the invasion of the Honshu Plain. Little concrete can be said of the latter because it was still in a preliminary stage when the Japanese surrendered. Its general outline, however, had taken shape. In March 1946 the Eighth and Tenth Armies (nine infantry, two armored, and three Marine Divisions) would land along the seaward side of the Kanto Plain between Choshi and Ichinomiya. Behind the two veteran Pacific armies would come the First Army (ten infantry and one airborne divisions) units redeployed from Europe. After seizing the Kanto Plain the three armies would occupy the Tokyo-Yokohama area. Should the Japanese continue fighting after the fall of their industrial and political heartland, the troops would fan out and clean out the surviving Japanese forces.

Such were the plans rendered unnecessary the Japanese surrender. Drawn up before the atomic bomb exploded over the Hiroshima parade ground, the plans naturally included no provision for nuclear weapons. But whether the introduction of the new weapons would have radically changed the plans is doubtful. More uncertain is the question of whether it would in indeed have been necessary to stage CORONET at all. Certainly many of the planners at the time doubted its necessity and the historian nearly twenty years after the event cannot avoid the surmise that had not Hiroshima stampeded Japan into surrender, the occupation of Kyushu would have done so. The planning was not wasted, however, as it formed the basis for the plans used for the occupation. USMC

Dr. Bauer is a Harvard graduate who received a Ph. D. from Indiana University. He was an assistant to Samuel Eliot Morison during the preparation and writing of History of United States Naval Operations in World War II.

Dr. Coox collaborated with Mr. Saburo Hayashi on the English-language edition of Kogun, a history of the Japanese Army in the Pacific. He is with the Department of History, San Diego State College.